“What Happens When The Phone Size Changes?”

We spotted a very interesting question from Michael Arrington in the TC Disrupt finals presentation from the Gtar team. The gTar is a fully digital guitar that enables anybody to play music quickly and easily with the help of LEDs and a docked iPhone (Source). The question from Michael Arrington was this:

“What happens when the phone size changes? Then your guitar won’t work anymore”

The gTar team had a design that could accommodate such a change – but if you think about it, that is a solid lesson for everyone building all kinds of stuff: write down your assumptions, and play around with what could change in those assumptions, how they could change (to the extent possible) and make the required elements of the product as adaptable as possible. It is a simple point, which is precisely why it might get overlooked.

Do whatever you can to keep the guitar working when the phone size changes.

For Interesting Statistics Everyday, Find Statspotting on Facebook and Follow Statspotting on Twitter

Wealth And Risk-Taking

Here is a classic Round-Trip Fallacy. From the WSJ:

“Do the wealthy take more risks because they are wealthy, or are they wealthy because they take more risks?

Both might be true. Yet a new study suggests that larger wealth may be more of a cause of risk-taking than a result. The study, by Barclays Wealth, polled people with $1.5 million or more in investible assets. It found that those with $15 million or more in wealth were more likely than the lesser millionaires to agree with the statement that “I buy and sell investments more than I should.”

They also were more likely than those with $1.5 million or more to agree with the statement that “to do well in financial markets you have to buy and sell often,” and that “I attempt to strategically time the market as opposed to adopting a buy and hold strategy.”

Statistics Source: WSJ

So the flaw is obvious. It will be helpful for us to revisit the definition of Round-Trip Fallacy:

The Round-trip Fallacy. This is the confusion of absence of evidence that unexpected, high impact events (Black Swans) have occurred, or will occur, with evidence of absence of such events (no possible Black Swans). (p. 310) For example, there is an absence of evidence, that al-Qaeda has successfully established terrorist cells in Washington, DC, at the moment. But it would be erroneous to infer that there is evidence of the absence of all such events. As NNT points out (p. 54), post- cancer treatment absence of evidence from body scans that cancer remains in the body, is not equivalent to evidence of the absence of all such cancer cells.

For Interesting Statistics Everyday, Find Statspotting on Facebook and Follow Statspotting on Twitter

Chris Dixon’s Round Trip Fallacy

Chris Dixon made a post yesterday on SEOs, in which he says:

“I talk to lots of startups and almost none that I know of post-2008 have gained significant traction through SEO (the rare exceptions tend to be focused on content areas that were previously un-monetizable).”

It will be helpful for us to revisit the definition of Round-Trip Fallacy:

The Round-trip Fallacy. This is the confusion of absence of evidence that unexpected, high impact events (Black Swans) have occurred, or will occur, with evidence of absence of such events (no possible Black Swans). (p. 310) For example, there is an absence of evidence, that al-Qaeda has successfully established terrorist cells in Washington, DC, at the moment. But it would be erroneous to infer that there is evidence of the absence of all such events. As NNT points out (p. 54), post- cancer treatment absence of evidence from body scans that cancer remains in the body, is not equivalent to evidence of the absence of all such cancer cells.

Wow. Classic.

For Interesting Statistics Everyday, Find Statspotting on Facebook and Follow Statspotting on Twitter