Jobs: Thanksgiving Turkey?March 7, 2011 2:38 pm
For the third straight month, the unemployment numbers have fallen: it was 9.8% in November and it is 8.9% now. Extrapolating this to argue that the economy is on the right track, would be a classic case of the problem of induction (Taleb).
“One of Taleb’s favourite allegorical tales is the story of the turkey and the butcher. As previously described by Bertrand Russell, a turkey may get used to the idea of being fed but when, the day before Christmas, it is slaughtered, it will incur ‘a revision of belief’.”
In the new job numbers then, do we have a Turkey at hand?