Increase The Surface Area For Positive Black SwansSeptember 17, 2012 11:21 am
Well, think about the way most of us (about 99.9 percent) have designed our lives
1. We have a steady ramp with an okay slope (which is most probably accurately known -or so we think).
2. We have a huge surface area for negative black swan events (e.g. disease, accident,earthquake etc) which we “insure” against, by paying money. We drive daily. Eating out is a regular activity. All of these increase the surface area for negative black swan events.
3. So most of us have chosen to design our lives with a known positive ramp graph with a not-so-great slope, but with open possibility for huge negative black swan events.
If you think about it, we have absolutely no surface area for positive black swan events (huge career moves, sudden riches, a stunning ramp-up).
But why? Why do we all choose to live our lives with ZERO surface area for positive black swan events?
Think about it for a minute – is that not strange?
Build that iPad app. Start that Android blog. Whatever.
Just increase the surface area for positive black swans in your life.
Because, like Taleb says, the necessary condition for winning the lottery is to buy a ticket. Do it.