The Best Groupon Deal Ever: 86.2% Off On GRPN at NASDAQ

November 10, 2012 6:35 am

We had spotted some time back that Groupon was worth less than half of what Google offered them – it has gone from bad to worse since then. The stock is now trading at 2.76 USDs a share – giving it a market cap of 1.8 Billion USDs. That would be the best Groupon deal ever, considering that stock’s IPO price was $20. Why, in Feb 2012 it was trading at 24 dollars plus.

(We had done some analysis on the math behind Groupon deals as well, earlier)

Maybe they should have taken Google’s offer. Maybe we are looking at a great deal here, and it is a 25 dollar stock after all. But this is our takeaway on the stock – if you enter a profitable niche and find that you are the first and you foresee a land grab, work on creating entry barriers. Or, got into new cash cow businesses (like Amazon did, with the whole AWS thing) – they are looking at Payments now, but maybe it is a little too late.

What does the past say about this? Is this a deal we should buy? Where is Nate Silver when you need him?

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